Scenarios aren’t just a tool for anticipating the future — they’re a way of opening up possibilities, challenging assumptions, and sparking the creativity we need to navigate uncertainty. In a world where change feels constant, and surprises are the norm, scenarios help us ask the right questions and explore the paths less travelled.
But how do we make scenarios useful, not just as a one-off exercise, but as a core part of how we design, innovate, and adapt?
Why scenarios matter
We often treat scenarios like an intellectual exercise — a clever way to map “what ifs.” But their real power is emotional and practical. Scenarios give us permission to imagine alternative futures, wrestle with the unexpected, and rethink our own role in shaping what’s next.
For local government, B Corps, startups, or service-based organisations, this might mean:
- Preparing for external shocks (like climate impacts or funding cuts) without losing sight of long-term goals.
- Exploring how different futures could affect residents, staff, or the systems you’re redesigning.
- Using scenarios to align teams around a shared sense of possibility.
How could we use insights from scenarios to anticipate rather than wait and see if they emerge or not?
How can we support greater connecting between people of different cultures, class and geographies, not just through community activities but in how we deliver services, design spaces or create new standards.
If neighbourhoods could increasingly be dominated by specific demographies, how can we reduce that? If we have greater changes in family, friendship and work structures that affects how people spend their free time and look out for each other, how can we both enable people & innovators to design solutions to those changes, so we design in greater opportunities for solidarity (i.e. intergenerational), collective responsibility and flexibility (i.e. adaptive design).
What role should councils play to support people to take advantage of these changes?
If opportunities for people are growing for them to pool their resources with people like them to save money and belong to a community, how can we use the design principles of those projects to people can easily create similar forms of collective goods in their neighbourhood (i.e. Everyone Everyday), support people who are developing these in an informal way to scale them (i.e. Share Lab and Fair by Design) or create the policy environment that embeds commons as a way of doing things across local government’s policy levers (i.e. Bologna Regulation for Commons, Seoul Sharing City, Ghent Public-Commons Partnerships)?
If organisations are personalising services to needs and desires of people who can pay extra for that personalisation (i.e. care, concierge), how can we create the environment and business models for organisations to design personalised services to people who are most in need (i.e. pool personal budgets), without the personalisation isolating people from their support networks or creating dependence.
If digital services shape how people work, socialise and travel (i.e. Uber, Airbnb), meet others (i.e. Tinder) with the impacts that has financially (i.e. cheaper than hotels versus reducing supply of housing for Airbnb), socially (meet someone with your interests versus homogenising couples), how can we design in behaviours in digital services that instead mean everyone benefits and shares growth to the economy (i.e. Fairbnb, cooperative model of sharing economy, i.e. platform coops) or socialisation (i.e. Good Gym, Casserole).
If consumer services could increasingly be provided on demand” either in public spaces or in people’s homes, what happens if people don’t go to restaurants or pubs because they can get better quality takeaways or even gigs in their hubs, or if public spaces become just spaces to consume and be marketed. And that people become increasingly want to consume and dispose of more?
How do you create a better alternative if it’s easier to shop online for the basics, who not create high streets that are less “clone towns” and have more of a unique character that attracts people to want to experience difference?
Lessons that scenarios can teach us
1. Uncertainty isn’t the enemy, it’s our new norma;
The future is always uncertain, but that’s not something to fear. It’s something to engage with. Scenarios help us build resilience by asking, “What might we need to change if this happens?”
- Example: The RSA’s Regenerative Futures explored how organisations could shift to more sustainable, equitable models by considering how social, economic, and environmental trends might evolve.
- Choose one critical uncertainty for your organisation. How could different outcomes reshape your priorities or assumptions?
2. Diverging from the present can be liberating
We tend to anchor our thinking in what’s already happening. Scenarios push us to imagine what might happen if today’s rules didn’t apply.
- Example: Nesta’s Future of Work scenarios reimagined how automation, climate action, and shifting values might transform employment, helping organisations explore bold strategies.
- Host a team session where you challenge assumptions about the “inevitable” future. What if one of your biggest constraints disappeared overnight?
3. Scenarios are a team sport
The best scenarios don’t come from the top — they come from collaboration. Involving diverse voices means spotting risks and opportunities that might otherwise be missed.
- Example: In New Zealand, the Deep South Challenge used participatory scenario planning to explore how climate change could impact local communities, with residents and policymakers co-creating strategies.
- Include people from across your organisation — and beyond — in your next scenario exercise. How can residents, staff, or partners add insights you might not have considered?
How to embed scenarios in your work
1. Identify key drivers of change
What’s already shifting in your environment? Think about policy, technology, demographics, and the economy.
2. Map critical uncertainties
What’s unpredictable but could have a big impact? Narrow it down to the two most significant uncertainties, and use them to create a scenario matrix.
3. Imagine plausible futures
Sketch out four distinct worlds based on your matrix. What do they feel like? Who wins and loses? What opportunities or risks emerge?
4. Stress-test your strategies
Use your scenarios to ask tough questions: What might your current plan miss? How could you adapt to thrive in all four worlds?
5. Make scenarios a habit
Don’t leave them on the shelf. Revisit them regularly, update them as new trends emerge, and use them to spark ongoing dialogue.
Inspiration from the UK and beyond
- Local Government Association: Their Future Councils initiative uses scenarios to help councils adapt to challenges like digital transformation and resource constraints.
- Forum for the Future: Their Living Grid project imagined how renewable energy systems could evolve, sparking collaboration between businesses and communities.
- Singapore’s Urban Redevelopment Authority: Known for embedding scenario planning into its national development strategies, ensuring policies stay adaptive and future-focused.
Call to action: what’s your scenario?
Here’s the challenge:
- Pick one big uncertainty your organisation is facing.
- Work with a diverse group — colleagues, partners, residents — to map out how it could unfold.
- Use the insights to test your current strategies.
Scenarios aren’t about predicting the future — they’re about shaping it. They’re a tool for creativity, resilience, and collaboration, and they work best when they’re messy, iterative, and shared.