Using scenarios to shape the future: lessons from local government and beyond

The future is tricky. It’s uncertain, messy, and sometimes downright overwhelming. But that doesn’t mean we can’t prepare for it. Scenarios — those imagined futures that stretch our thinking — can be an incredible tool for strategy, innovation, and change. They help us step out of the now, explore the “what ifs,” and make smarter decisions today.

But here’s the thing: scenarios aren’t just about predicting the future. They’re about helping people actively shape it. And in a world where change is constant, that’s more important than ever.

1. Scenarios as a tool for participation

The best scenarios don’t just sit on a slide deck — they start conversations. They challenge assumptions and encourage collaboration. At Adur & Worthing, their Shoreham Harbour regeneration programme is a brilliant example. It’s not just about imagining what the harbour could be — it’s about engaging residents, businesses, and community groups to co-create a future that works for everyone.

Similarly, the Government Digital Service (GDS) used scenario planning to design their future of public services framework. They didn’t just focus on technology; they explored how different societal shifts could change the way people interact with government, creating a flexible strategy that’s ready for anything.

How to apply this:

• Use scenarios as a starting point for discussions, not just a finished product.
• Bring diverse voices into the process — residents, staff, and partners.
• Focus on questions, not answers: what challenges could these futures pose? What opportunities might they create?

2. Preparing for disruption

Scenarios are especially powerful when it comes to disruption. They help organisations think ahead, spot risks, and adapt to change.

Organisations like Nesta have embraced scenarios to anticipate how technology could reshape everything from education to health. Their anticipatory innovation approach (https://www.nesta.org.uk/project/anticipatory-innovation-governance/) helps organisations explore multiple futures and create strategies that can flex with the times.

How to apply this:

• Build scenarios around key uncertainties, like economic shifts or technological advances.
• Use them to stress-test your strategies: how would they hold up in different futures?
• Focus on resilience: how can your organisation adapt no matter what comes next?

3. Turning scenarios into action

Of course, scenarios are only useful if they lead to action. That’s where tools like mission-based working come in. At Adur & Worthing, the Proactive Shared Prosperity Fund programme shows how scenarios can drive real-world change. By exploring different futures for economic growth, the councils are targeting investments where they’ll have the biggest impact.

Another great example is the Design Council’s Design for Planet initiative (https://www.designcouncil.org.uk/our-work/design-for-planet/). They use scenarios to rethink sustainability, helping organisations take bold, practical steps to reduce their carbon footprint while preparing for a changing world.

How to apply this:

• Align scenarios with your organisational priorities: how can they inform your strategy?
• Identify quick wins: what actions can you take now to prepare for future challenges?
• Build a culture of experimentation: use scenarios to test new ideas and approaches.

4. A call to action: make the future participative

The most powerful scenarios don’t just prepare us for the future — they inspire us to shape it. They challenge us to think bigger, act smarter, and work together.

So here’s my challenge: whether you’re in local government, a startup, or a B Corp, try using scenarios to open up conversations. Engage your teams, your residents, and your partners. Ask the big “what ifs.” And most importantly, turn those ideas into action.

5. What do you think?

Have you used scenarios in your work? What’s worked, and what hasn’t? Let’s share ideas and learn from each other. Together, we can shape a future that’s adaptive, participative, and resilient.